https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis daily 1.0 2020-03-14 https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis/2018/3/3/hev5s5umz2avtq22sgka7qj5fqrfj3 monthly 0.5 2018-03-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520256005753-PQYOQS10SI5E36BW88H6/melbteams1975smoothindexonlyvicmatches_N.png Analysis - Part I: The Recent History of Match Attendance Figure 3: Mean match attendance by season for each Victorian team. Loess smoothing applied. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521300799469-AMERB7F6ZVR6Z862GZ0R/image-asset.png Analysis - Part I: The Recent History of Match Attendance Figure 1: Mean match attendance by season. Analysis commences in 1925 when Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and Footscray/Western Bulldogs joined the VFL to form a 12 team competition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520256052777-74JEM0QM3ACMJ4G2UF3W/MatchAttendanceOverTime_N.png Analysis - Part I: The Recent History of Match Attendance Figure 2: Mean match attendance among different groups of teams by season. https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis/2018/3/5/part-ii-what-drives-attendance monthly 0.5 2020-02-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1582988860480-CJ5L81GPC8Y2AGLXOMLB/predictorimpactglm_N2017V2.png Analysis - Part II: Drivers of Match Attendance Figure 6: Unique impact of factors on true home ground match attendance from 2006 onwards. The baseline category for DayTime is SatDay and therefore DayTime results can be interpreted in relation to this category. ATMelbourne and HTMelbourne were chosen as the baseline category for team-related predictors. HTDiffinLaddPostoATAdj is the difference in ladder position between the home team and the opposition going in to the match, adjusted for the number of teams in the competition in that season. Draws were recoded as losses or "non-wins"). Ladder position was not explicitly included in the model as it was highly correlated with points and percentage. ^indicates a predictor that is not statistically significant - p>0.05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520434743670-KN4YNY2MAVI29S6VZ2D4/homegroundattendanceandrankdiffsscatter_N.png Analysis - Part II: Drivers of Match Attendance Figure 5: Attendance by prior ladder position, 2006 onwards. Main home grounds for each club only. Also excludes the first quarter of the season. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1582987952593-B0FMUNSYVC8PL2PWMU2S/modelcomparison_2017V2.png Analysis - Part II: Drivers of Match Attendance Figure 7: Trialled models to predict home ground match attendance from 2006 onwards. 10-fold cross-validation applied. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520434321326-GI49FKY4SU3PVMG1F3JF/homegroundattendanceandpriorranksscatter_N.png Analysis - Part II: Drivers of Match Attendance Figure 4: Attendance by prior ladder position, 2006 onwards. Main home grounds for each club only. Also excludes the first quarter of the season to allow for ladder position to better reflect performance. https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis/2018/3/9/part-iii-blockbusters-stinkers monthly 0.5 2018-03-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521216136268-LSCGMUIYMYG1NX1TDQKX/recentdistributionofptsdiff_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 9: Recent distribution of difference in points between the home team and away team prior to the match. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520783009883-7FJIL2D6VN19CSXGPF70/gametypesperseason_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 11: Match-up types by season. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520957334930-DWFG7J1YU9SWPZGLCSTO/winnertypesbasicsince2006pointsstackedbarhomegroundsbyteam_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 16. Match results by home team's difference in points-to-date to away team for each home team. Filtered to 2006 onwards at a home team's official home ground. At least 5 matches need to have been played in each category. The first quarter of the season is also excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520782691071-OVMOXQIVW0Y0YH9LYCIN/recentptsdiff_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 10: Mean difference in points each round. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520874296348-UR8EP0PRM9XPM33E9QE7/blockbustersfridayperroundcount_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 13: Friday night blockbusters by round by season. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520677051731-AO7LSU1ZAKTAPTPRKX3G/meanandmedianptsdiffhistory_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 8: Home team difference in points to away team prior to the match. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520874937759-M3R3PHRDHETUSC88PP3B/stinkersfridayperroundcount_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 14: Friday night stinkers by round by season. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520956485331-CGNZCYEQ6PX17PWQ7W60/winnertypesbasicsince2006pointsstackedbarlabelshomegrounds_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 15: Match results by home team's difference in points-to-date to away team. Filtered to 2006 onwards and the home team's official home ground. The first quarter of the season is also excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1520783789866-8QVM513ED9KOW99CNSFL/blockbustersperroundcount_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 12: Blockbusters by round by season. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521044040880-XFPLLLR51AOTAY95KGJ3/hometeamwinningrateladderpointstrendsince1897_N.png Analysis - Part III: Blockbusters, Stinkers and Upsets Figure 17: Incidence of the home team winning by the home team's difference in points-to-date to the away team. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis/2018/3/12/part-iv-weve-got-the-close-one monthly 0.5 2018-03-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521192066645-W0A8JU2Q4ICUTJMY49ZG/marginsovertimepercentiles_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 20: Winning margin percentiles by season. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521195993616-L458M6P4PMAQNW00TPJ1/twoworstteams_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 21: Share of losses among the two biggest losers each season. Filtered to 1925 onwards when the VFL became a 12 team competition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521199111077-RK7A1HLI1EJCI7F4ZV5L/hometeamdownscenariotrendsince1897_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 23: Incidence of the home team winning for different quarter-time scenarios by season. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521215923881-KSAABNB0MVLYKS446C24/hometeamscenariotrendsince1897incidence_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 25: Incidence of match scenarios each season. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521223512489-3CMICD0EZI2287PIMHCQ/comebackssince1897incidence_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 26: Comebacks by season. A comeback is defined as either of these scenarios: HT- > HT- > HT- > HT win and the HT+ > HT+ > HT+ > AT win. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521227605938-CU2N6ULRL327L3WY1OUZ/comebackssince1897incidencewith34margin_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 29: Comebacks by Season. A comeback is defined as either of these scenarios: HT- > HT- > HT- > HT win, HT+ > HT+ > HT+ > AT win, HT down by 3 goals or more at three-quarter-time and winning, or AT down by 2 goals or more at three-quarter time and winning. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521190980218-QV2AF6O5L0OAKEFR7L4H/meanandmedianmarginhistory_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 19: Mean and median winning margins by season. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521224271953-PTXQR1KMC7QE2WC1AUEN/hometeam3qtrmarginresultalltime_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 27: Match result by home team's three-quarter time margin. All seasons since 1897. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521197035743-R2CRHXJMB2NMDM4DJWBF/fourbestteams_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 22: Share of losses among the four smallest losers each season. Filtered to 1925 onwards when the VFL became a 12 team competition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521189683210-6UJ23BMFL1X1JJOLD490/alltimedistributionofmargins_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 18: Distribution of winning margins by season. 1897 is the dark red end of the spectrum through to yellow. green, then dark blue in 2017 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521199730675-Y9LD3Q6AF6S7F2ACGSBO/hometeamupscenariotrendsince1897_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 24: Incidence of the home team losing for different quarter-time scenarios by season. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1521225877020-TRT6T3YAE0Z4K0LI1PGC/hometeammarginresulttrendsince1897_N.png Analysis - Part IV: "We've Got the Close One!" Figure 28: Chance of a three-quarter time comeback for different scenarios by season. https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis/2019/2/22/2019update monthly 0.5 2020-03-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1551475733084-5UDAASNUF3KBGR5YTVB1/blockbustersfridayperroundcount_2018.png Analysis - 2019 Update Figure 3: Blockbusters by round by season. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1551475432367-MZNQK88KEBGW67EC48WC/recentdistributionofptsdiff_2018.png Analysis - 2019 Update Figure 1: Recent distribution of difference in points between the home team and away team prior to the match. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1551475612120-R3R2SNHHB8U75172EWEB/recentptsdiff_2018.png Analysis - 2019 Update Figure 2: Mean difference in points each round. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1551476902673-LSLQARY3A75C3JFINDW6/yoychangeinattendance.png Analysis - 2019 Update Figure 5: Year-on-year change in home team match attendance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1551475813044-NKCQI8TDL24XRV1OL0MF/stinkersfridayperroundcount_2018.png Analysis - 2019 Update Figure 4: Friday night stinkers by round by season. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://www.thisdatatalks.com/analysis/2020/3/14/2020-update monthly 0.5 2020-03-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1584209850834-RD3ILT0S03Z5ZJFNID6C/predictorimpactsvm_2019.png Analysis - 2020 Update Figure 5. Attribute importance in the final 2019 SVM algorithm. The value of the x-axis is an average ratio of error when values of that attributes are put through the model relative to the baseline error of the model. Therefore, attribute with importance values close to 1 mean that on their own they have minimal marginal impact. In addition, be careful when interpreting the above predictors. For example, LOCFootballPark does not mean that matches at Football Park had large attendance. It means that it had a large impact, either positive or negative. And in this case, we can assume negative since when this predictor is set to zero, we are essentially talking about matches being played at the Adelaide Oval, a venue with higher capacity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1584204250936-PY6GMX3T0MI99VDTYADZ/recentdistributionofptsdiff_2019.png Analysis - 2020 Update Figure 1: Recent distribution of difference in points between the home team and away team prior to the match. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1584204425699-M2RQ0PC72DTNZWF35JDK/recentptsdiff_2019.png Analysis - 2020 Update Figure 2: Mean difference in points each round. The first quarter of the season is excluded to allow enough time for the competition to settle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1584206715047-MUZPCYCVJ6U2IIXQLFPU/yoychangeinattendance2019.png Analysis - 2020 Update Figure 4: Year-on-year change in home team attendance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a9ae80396d45564d0c2e95f/1584206535563-V7LXT3M96WJM714BJK6S/meanandmedianmarginhistory_2019.png Analysis - 2020 Update Figure 3: Mean and median winning margins per season. https://www.thisdatatalks.com/witherfooty daily 0.75 2018-03-17 https://www.thisdatatalks.com/about daily 0.75 2018-03-17